Uganda forecasts near-normal to above-normal rains for March–May 2026

Most parts of Uganda are expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall during the March–May (MAM) 2026 season, the Ministry of Water and Environment has announced, raising prospects for improved agricultural production while cautioning against localized flooding.

Speaking at the Uganda Media Centre on Friday, Permanent Secretary Dr Alfred Okidi said the seasonal outlook calls for early planning to mitigate potential risks and maximize benefits associated with the rains.

“The onset of rains will vary by region, with most areas experiencing rainfall from early to mid-March. The peak rainfall is expected between April and May and is expected to end by early to mid-June in most parts of the country,” Dr Okidi said.

Near-normal rainfall — typically between 75% and 125% of the long-term average — generally supports agriculture, replenishes water resources, and sustains socio-economic activities without major disruptions.

Regional outlook

According to the ministry, parts of the northwestern region, areas around Lake Victoria, and some eastern districts are likely to experience largely near-normal rainfall.

In the Central region and the Lake Victoria Basin — including Lyantonde, Sembabule, Mubende, Kassanda, Kyankwanzi, Kiboga, Luwero, Nakaseke, and Nakasongola — intermittent rains have already been recorded, with full seasonal rains expected by early March.

Similarly, eastern Lake Victoria and southeastern districts such as Jinja, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Namayingo, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia, and Tororo are projected to have the rains fully established by early March.

In the northeastern districts of the Northern region — including Katakwi, Amuria, Kapelebyong, Napak, Moroto, Nabilatuk, Nakapiripirit, Amudat, Abim, Kotido, Kaabong, and Karenga — light and intermittent rainfall has already been observed. The seasonal rains are expected to set in from early to mid-March, peaking between late April and early May, before tapering off by mid-June.

In the Western region, particularly the southwestern districts of Kisoro, Rubanda, Kabale, Rukiga, Kanungu, Rukungiri, Ntungamo, Rwampara, Mbarara, Isingiro, Kiruhura, Kazo, Ibanda, Kitagwenda, Buhweju, Bushenyi, Sheema, Mitooma, Rubirizi, and Kasese, the onset of rains has already been established. The peak is expected between early and late April, with cessation likely toward late May.

Implications for key sectors

The ministry said the seasonal forecast carries significant implications for agriculture, food security, public health, energy generation, and water resource management.

Areas expecting near-normal rainfall are likely to experience favorable conditions for standard agricultural production. However, localized zones projected to receive above-normal rainfall could face uneven distribution, potentially increasing the risk of flash floods, waterlogging, and crop damage.

Recent heavy downpours have previously caused flooding in parts of Kampala and surrounding areas, underscoring the need for preparedness in urban centers and low-lying communities.

Dr Bob Ogwang, Commissioner of Meteorological Services, urged the public and sector agencies to pay attention to advisories issued alongside the seasonal outlook.

“What we usually do is to monitor weather and climate, give predictions, and work with our sister ministries to co-develop advisories regarding the implications of the forecast,” Dr Ogwang said.

Authorities encouraged farmers, local governments, and disaster management committees to align planting schedules, water management strategies, and contingency plans with the forecast to reduce potential losses and harness the expected rainfall for improved productivity.